MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2123

ACUS11 KWNS 221248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221248
LAZ000-TXZ000-221445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2123
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...UPR TX CST/E TX...WRN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 771...

VALID 221248Z - 221445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 771 CONTINUES.

12Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A 1004 MB LOW NEAR HUNTSVILLE TX WITH A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THROUGH WRN HOUSTON METRO THEN OFF
THE CST. THE WRMFNT HAS MADE SLOW PROGRESS NEWD...SITUATED FROM KLFK
SEWD TO NEAR KLCH.

NARROW RIBBON OF UPR 60S/NEAR 70 DEG F SFC DEW POINTS HAS SPREAD
INLAND S OF THE FRONT...AIDING IN LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION AND
SUPPORTING A BAND OF TSTMS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. STORMS
HAVE INCREASED IN NUMBER/INTENSITY SINCE 10Z AS LARGER SCALE ASCENT
SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION COURTESY OF AN UPR FEATURE ASSOCD WITH
REMNANT TC RICK.

BAND OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN ACCELERATING ENE INTO THE SABINE
RVR AREA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AS THE PRIMARY SFC LOW DEVELOPS
TOWARD KSHV. THE SVR THREAT WILL BEGIN TO END FROM W TO E AS THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES EWD...BUT SPREAD ENE AS LOW-LVL AIRMASS
RECOVERS.

LATEST VWP FROM HGX...LCH AND POE SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LVL
TURNING IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM...TOPPED BY GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
SLY FLOW. EXPECT THAT BANDS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE EVOLVING WITH
TIME...WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOTH WARM SECTOR DISCRETE CELLS AND
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS BRIEFLY EXHIBITING LOW-LEVEL ROTATION /ISOLD
TORNADOES-DMGG WIND GUSTS/. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE INVOF
THE WRMFNT ACROSS FAR ERN TX AND SWRN/WCNTRL LA /INCLUDING AREAS
BETWEEN KBPT-KJAS/ THROUGH 15Z.

..RACY.. 10/22/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 30559514 31949500 32409351 32259166 30319181 29159211
29169433 28589515 28789539 30559514

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