SWOD48
SPC AC 110858
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2009
VALID 141200Z - 191200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LATEST ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEPICTION OF A PROGRESSIVE/WESTERLY LARGE SCALE UPPER FLOW REGIME
REMAINING PREVALENT INITIALLY...BEFORE AN APPRECIABLE AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN /WITH EASTERN STATES TROUGH DEVELOPMENT/
OCCURS THROUGH DAYS 5/6 THURSDAY/FRIDAY. WHILE VARIABILITY EXISTS
REGARDING LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND/OR THE DEGREE OF
INITIAL AMPLIFICATION...IT DOES SEEM PROBABLE THAT A SEVERE TSTM
THREAT WILL DEVELOP/INCREASE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH VICINITY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION/SOUTHEAST STATES FROM LATE DAY
4/WEDNESDAY INTO DAY 5/THURSDAY. DESPITE THE RETURN OF A MODIFIED
GULF AIRMASS AND A DEEPENING CYCLONE...UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE PARENT SYSTEM AND IMPLICATIONS ON CONVECTIVE
MODE PRECLUDE 30% DAY-1 EQUIVALENT PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME FOR
DAY 5/THURSDAY. WHILE A SEVERE RISK COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY DAY
6/FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW
THEREAFTER INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COOLER/MORE STABLE AIRMASS
DOMINATES EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
..GUYER.. 10/11/2009
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