SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201630
NMZ000-TXZ000-AZZ000-201830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2116
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST AZ/SOUTHERN NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 201630Z - 201830Z
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO/THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST AZ INTO SOUTHWEST
NM...AND EVENTUALLY INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NM/EXTREME WEST
TX. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER AZ TODAY. AMPLE LARGE SCALE HEIGHT
FALLS/FORCED ASCENT COUPLED WITH A RELATIVELY MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY INTO/THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ INTO ADJACENT NM. WITH INCREASING
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ALREADY NOTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ...THE SHORT TERM
THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE FOR HAIL TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
LEVELS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST AZ INTO
SOUTHWEST NM. HOWEVER WITH TIME...ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED
DEVELOPMENT SEEMS PROBABLE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR
SOUTHEAST AZ/SOUTHWEST NM...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH CENTRAL NM/FAR WEST
TX. AS SUCH...IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR HAIL...THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS/PERHAPS EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO MAY ALSO INCREASE WITH
SEMI-ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS PROBABLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
..GUYER.. 10/20/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...
LAT...LON 31541010 32691044 34340921 34190732 33180628 31710658
31290875 31541010
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