WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 770

WWUS20 KWNS 201730
SEL0
SPC WW 201730
AZZ000-NMZ000-210000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 770
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
PARTS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1130 AM UNTIL 600
PM MDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF DOUGLAS ARIZONA TO 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
ALBUQUERQUE NEW MEXICO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS UPPER SYSTEM MOVING EWD ACROSS AZ PRECEDED BY
INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IN SWLY FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN BOTH NUMBER AND INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE
WATCH THRU THE AFTERNOON. WITH MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG...40-50KT OF
SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH STRONGEST
STORMS ALONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WHICH WOULD LOCALLY ENHANCE LARGE HAIL AND
WIND THREAT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.

...HALES

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