SWODY1
SPC AC 161247
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 AM CST MON NOV 16 2009
VALID 161300Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER KS/OK THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EWD TO THE AR/MO BORDER REGION BY TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE
INITIALLY IN N CENTRAL AR WILL DEVELOP NNEWD INTO SE MO/SRN IL ALONG
A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHILE THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM EVOLVES
INTO AN OCCLUDED/VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD FROM E
TX/CENTRAL AR THIS MORNING TO TN/AL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REACH THE WA/ORE COASTS
TONIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR THE COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
...SE TX/SRN LA TODAY...
A SHRINKING BAND OF CONVECTION...WITH EMBEDDED/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...IS PROGRESSING SEWD ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
FROM SE TX INTO W/SW LA. THE FRONT IS PRECEDED BY A NARROW CORRIDOR
OF BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND WEAK SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SE TX THROUGH FRONTAL PASSAGE BY MID-LATE MORNING...AND
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN LA...BEFORE THE NARROW INLAND WARM
SECTOR AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY ARE EXHAUSTED.
...NE KS/SE NEB TODAY ACROSS ERN MO/SWRN IL INTO TONIGHT...
THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL AND ASSOCIATED STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD
EWD FROM KS TODAY TO MO BY THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...AS AN EMBEDDED
VORTICITY CENTER ROTATES NEWD FROM NE OK/SE KS. WEAK MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY /SAMPLED BY THE 12Z TOP SOUNDING/ AND ASCENT ALONG THE
REMAINING WARM CONVEYOR BELT ALOFT COULD SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 11/16/2009
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