SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161241
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-161745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2177
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 AM CST MON NOV 16 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KS/EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEB
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 161241Z - 161745Z
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KS /MAINLY NORTH OF I-70/ AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST NEB...WITH EMBEDDED 1+ IN/HR RATES POSSIBLE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/REGIONAL PROFILERS REFLECT AN INCREASINGLY
CLOSED MID/UPPER TROUGH...CENTERED OVER KS AND NORTHERN OK EARLY
THIS MORNING. ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CYCLONE...IT SEEMS
PROBABLE THAT SNOW SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST KS/EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEB AS LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT/ELEVATED THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES. WHILE AMBIENT
THERMAL PROFILES ARE MARGINAL WITH SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 32F...SNOW WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE AMIDST WELL-SUSTAINED/CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION RATES. ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SURGING DRY SLOT TOWARD
THE LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE 12Z
OBSERVED RAOB FROM TOPEKA SAMPLED AS MUCH AS 300 J/KG OF ELEVATED
MUCAPE BASED AROUND 700 MB. CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SNOW RATES/BROAD
BANDING SEEM PROBABLE WITH EMBEDDED 1+ IN/HR SNOW RATES...AND
PERHAPS SOME LIGHTNING/LOCALIZED THUNDERSNOW...A POSSIBILITY GIVEN
WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE MIXED PHASED
REGION ATOP A LARGELY ISOTHERMAL LOWEST 2KM.
..GUYER.. 11/16/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON 40259670 40229530 39419488 39259661 39289729 40079746
40259670
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