SWODY3
SPC AC 030717
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0117 AM CST TUE NOV 03 2009
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE A LESS AMPLIFIED/MORE PROGRESSIVE SPLIT UPPER FLOW
OVER THE PACIFIC BY THURSDAY...WITH A STRONG WESTERLY JET STREAK
NOSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID LATITUDE PACIFIC THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
LIKELY WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD...ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RIDGING MAY
BEGIN TO FLATTEN...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CYCLOGENESIS WILL
TAKE PLACE WITHIN/BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TROUGHING MAY ALSO BEGIN TO DEEPEN TO THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES... RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICAN PLATEAU WILL CONTINUE TO IMPEDE BOUNDARY LAYER
MODIFICATION AND MOISTURE RETURN. STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES...MUCH OF CALIFORNIA
AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
WEAK DESTABILIZATION MAY SUPPORT LOW THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES WEST
OF THE CASCADES...BUT ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.
..KERR.. 11/03/2009
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