SWOD48
SPC AC 030924
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 AM CST TUE NOV 03 2009
VALID 061200Z - 111200Z
...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY PERSISTS AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES CONCERNING SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN...AND
INTERACTION AMONG...BELTS OF STRONGER WESTERLIES WITHIN THE
PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME DURING THIS PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH
THE LATEST GUIDANCE MAINTAINS RECENT TRENDS SUGGESTIVE OF AN
EVOLUTION THAT COULD SUPPORT A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...INDICATIONS SUPPORTIVE OF ANYTHING BEYOND WEAK
DESTABILIZATION APPEAR MINIMAL. GIVEN THAT IT IS NOT EVEN CERTAIN
THAT THE EVOLVING PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO STRONG SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.../POTENTIAL TOO
LOW/...RATHER THAN /PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW/...STILL APPEARS TO BEST
CHARACTERIZE THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
..KERR.. 11/03/2009
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