SWODY3
SPC AC 160705
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 AM CST MON NOV 16 2009
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW...NOW TAKING SHAPE ACROSS WRN KS...IS FCST TO
DEVELOP INTO DEEP/CLOSED/STACKED CYCLONE OVER MO DAY-2...THEN WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AND DRIFT NWD OVER MID-UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY THIS PERIOD.
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONTAL ZONE WILL WEAKEN AND DECELERATE AS IT
MOVES EWD/SEWD ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS REGION...GA AND FL DAY-3.
FRONT SHOULD MERGE WITH INITIALLY SEPARATE REGIME OF COLD-AIR
DAMMING OVER SRN APPALACHIANS BY START OF PERIOD. THIS REGIME MAY
LEAVE WEDGE OF WARM SECTOR AIR ACROSS COASTAL GA/CAROLINAS. ENOUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE MAY DEVELOP TO OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT
IN SUPPORT OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...TSTM THREAT APPEARS
CONDITIONAL GIVEN LACK OF MORE ROBUST LOW LEVEL FORCING...AND
LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS AND SHEAR APPEAR TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
SVR THREAT.
..EDWARDS.. 11/16/2009
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment