SWOD48
SPC AC 160951
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CST MON NOV 16 2009
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
OZARKS/MS VALLEY CYCLONE DISCUSSED IN DAY-2 AND DAY-3 OUTLOOKS IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ENTRAINED AGAIN IN PREVAILING NRN-STREAM WLYS AND
EJECT EWD FROM UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION DAYS 4-5/19TH-21ST. PHASING
OF SEVERAL NERN PACIFIC SHORTWAVES SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS ROCKIES
DAY-6/21ST-22ND...THEN CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS DAY-7/22ND-23RD.
BY END OF DAY-7...ENSEMBLE DEW POINT PROGS YIELD REASONABLY STG
CONSENSUS THAT ENOUGH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND MOISTURE RETURN FROM
GULF WILL CHARACTERIZE BOUNDARY LAYER WARM SECTOR AT LEAST AS FAR N
AS CENTRAL/NRN TX TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
EVENT...AND PERHAPS SOME SVR TSTMS. UNCERTAINTIES THERE...AS WELL
AS IN CRITICAL SPECIFICS OF SFC CYCLOGENETIC/FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE
TO WAVE ALOFT...PRECLUDE UNCONDITIONAL 30% SVR LINE ATTM.
..EDWARDS.. 11/16/2009
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