SWOD48
SPC AC 120828
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CST SAT DEC 12 2009
VALID 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
DAY 4
GFS...ECMWF AND MREF MEMBERS CONTINUE PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...OH AND TN VALLEYS. GFS MAINTAINS
PHASING BETWEEN THE NRN AND A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE
THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE SRN TROUGH OVER TX/NM WITH WEAKER LOW-MID
LEVEL FLOW IN DOWNSTREAM WARM SECTOR. IN EITHER CASE...A COLD FRONT
WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SERN STATES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGER NRN STREAM TROUGH. WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL CHARACTERIZE THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. A LOW
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY EXIST WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BUT OVERALL THREAT
APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO DELINEATE AN OUTLOOK AREA AT THIS TIME.
DAY 5-8
CP HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SWD THROUGH THE U.S. IN WAKE OF COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA DAY 5 WHERE
SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL BE LOW. OTHERWISE...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND PRECLUDE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS THIS PERIOD.
..DIAL.. 12/12/2009
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