SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121055
NYZ000-121400-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2246
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0455 AM CST SAT DEC 12 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...UPSTATE NY
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 121055Z - 121400Z
LONG-LIVED LES BAND AFFECTING AREAS OF UPSTATE NY E OF LAKE ONTARIO
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND AREA IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD ZONE OF
LOW LEVEL WAA. RESULTANT WARMING OF 850-700 MB TEMPERATURES OVER
LAKE ONTARIO WILL AID IN WEAKENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN
ADDITION...SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES VEERING AND WEAKENING
OF 850 MB FLOW AND BACKING SURFACE WINDS WITH TIME DURING SATURDAY
MORNING. LOSS IN LAKE INDUCED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE WIND PROFILES WILL RESULT IN DECREASING
SENSIBLE AND LATENT HEAT FLUX...UNFAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...AND
DECREASING LEE SIDE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THUS...THE DEMISE OF THE MULTI-DAY LES BAND IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE
MORNING...AS SUGGESTED BY HI-RES 4KM NMM GUIDANCE.
..GARNER.. 12/12/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 43087699 43287716 43547701 43647618 43627506 43317486
43037508 42997595 43087699
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