SWODY1
SPC AC 180538
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2010
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
....CALIFORNIA...
A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH CALIFORNIA TODAY.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A LARGE AREA OF RAIN IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
INLAND ACROSS THE COAST OF NRN AND CNTRL CA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR COMBINED
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HAIL
MAY EXIST IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER-TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE STEEPEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE SRN CA COAST...THE SRN END OF THE RAINBAND
SHOULD SPREAD INLAND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS SHOW
INSTABILITY MAXIMIZED JUST OFFSHORE BENEATH THE EXIT REGION OF A
POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
JET MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WING GUSTS
WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN BAND. IF A FEW
STORMS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WOULD ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.
..BROYLES.. 01/18/2010
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