SWODY2
SPC AC 180530
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2010
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE SRN STREAM WILL PERSIST WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES EMANATING FROM
THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE ERN PACIFIC. ANOTHER IN A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE FROM THE WRN U.S. INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE MID MS VALLEY
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
...ERN TX AND SERN OK THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE WRN GULF WILL BE UNDERWAY EARLY TUESDAY
OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE. UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME DEEPENING OF THE LOW AS IT
DEVELOPS EWD INTO KS/OK. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE GULF HAS
BEEN SUPPRESSED BY RECENT FRONTAL INTRUSION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
WINDS HAVE ALREADY RETURNED TO SLY OVER THE WRN GULF WITH MID 50S
DEWPOINTS INDICATED IN SRN TX AS OF SUNDAY EVENING. AXIS OF
PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH LOW TO MID 60F DEWPOINTS SHOULD
RETURN NWD TO SRN-SERN TX WITH UPPER 50F TO 60F MORE LIKELY ACROSS
NERN TX. THIS MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD BENEATH EWD ADVECTING PLUME
OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN MUCAPE FROM 500-1000 J/KG.
SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN WITH APPROACH OF THE IMPULSE.
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM ERN PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY WITHIN DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION
REGIME LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL PROBABLY REMAIN
ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER GIVEN THE EXPECTED LATE
INITIATION...AND ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. NEWD TRAJECTORY OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOWARD KS AND
LIKELIHOOD OF A CAP WITHIN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS INDICATE THE
ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN SOMEWHAT DISPLACED FROM
THE GREATER INSTABILITY. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
PRIOR TO 12Z WILL PROBABLY REMAIN LIMITED.
...SWRN CA THROUGH SWRN AZ...
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH CA AND AZ LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING NORTH OF STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET. COLD
AIR ALOFT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK
INSTABILITY...MAINLY ALONG COASTAL CA AND INTO SWRN AZ WHERE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOISTER BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONG BULK SHEAR WILL
EXIST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE UPPER JET AXIS. AREAS OF PRECIPITATION
MAY STILL BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY FROM SRN CA INTO AZ IN
ASSOCIATION WITH EJECTING LEAD WAVE. MODEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS SECONDARY IMPULSE APPROACHES DURING THE EVENING WITH A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST
SEVERE THREAT.
..DIAL.. 01/18/2010
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