SWODY1
SPC AC 280528
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 PM CST WED JAN 27 2010
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TX...
...SOUTH TX...
STRONG...WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH IS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE SWRN
U.S./NRN MEXICO WHILE A STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO
ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEFORE EJECTING NEWD INTO SOUTH TX
EARLY. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS LLJ RESPONDS AND AIDS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
FROM DEEP SOUTH TX INTO OK. EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP WILL LIMIT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AHEAD OF SAGGING POLAR FRONT...THOUGH BREAKS
MAY ENCOURAGE SOME HEATING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN MEXICO
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL EASILY
DEVELOP...INITIALLY ATOP COOLER AIRMASS WHERE ASCENT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER...WITH TIME IT APPEARS NEAR-SFC BASED CONVECTION
WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE ALONG ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE ALONG NERN PLUME
OF SOMEWHAT STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHERE MUCAPE WILL APPROACH
500-1000 J/KG. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUSED
ALONG/BEHIND WIND SHIFT BUT WITHIN VEERING PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR
ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP WITHIN
BROADER CONVECTIVE FRONTAL BANDS. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHETHER
DISCRETE STRUCTURES WILL EVOLVE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND THUS AN
ELONGATED MCS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE FROM SW-NE
ACROSS TX BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE
MOISTENING PROFILES AND STRONG SHEAR...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED SUPERCELLS ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY BOWING SEGMENTS
ALONG THE MCS WHILE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD BE NOTED WITH
UPDRAFTS NEAR/BEHIND COLD FRONT.
..DARROW.. 01/28/2010
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