SWODY2
SPC AC 280540
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST WED JAN 27 2010
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...TX COASTAL PLAIN/SRN LA/SRN MS/WRN FL PANHANDLE...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES QUICKLY EWD FROM THE TX COASTAL
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING ALONG THE BOUNDARY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE MID TO UPPER TX
COAST. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ENCOURAGE
LINEAR DEVELOPMENT AND A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO SUPPORT
THE CONVECTION. ETA-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN SE TX FRIDAY AT 15Z
SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F WITH MUCAPE BETWEEN 500 AND
1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH 50 TO 60 KT OF SHEAR AND 40 KT AT 1 KM
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE MORE
INTENSE CELL ELEMENTS IN THE LINE. SOME SFC HEATING MAY OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE LINE IN SRN LA AND SRN MS. HOWEVER...WEAK MOISTURE RETURN
SHOULD KEEP SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S F ACROSS THE MS
DELTA REGION. FOR THIS REASON...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MARGINAL DURING THE DAY AS THE LINE ADVANCES EWD REACHING THE
FL PANHANDLE BY FRIDAY EVENING.
..BROYLES.. 01/28/2010
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