SWODY1
SPC AC 260534
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CST THU FEB 25 2010
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SERN TX/SRN LA...
LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A MORE DEFINED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION OVER SWRN OK...DIGGING SEWD IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. PRECIP SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE
AS UVV AIDS MOISTENING DOWNSTREAM INTO VEERED WARM CONVEYOR OVER
SERN TX. MODELS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR
DEEPENING CONVECTION BY SUNRISE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY EVOLVE ALONG INVERTED SFC WAVE WHERE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. EVEN SO...MUCAPE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER MARGINAL
WITH VALUES LIKELY AOB 500 J/KG...PROBABILISTICALLY TOO MEAGER TO
WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE
ELEVATED NATURE OF THE UPDRAFTS.
...WEST COAST...
00Z MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INLAND FROM LATE IN THE DAY1 INTO THE DAY2 PERIOD. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS IDEA...ALTHOUGH A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL LIKELY EJECT INTO NRN CA BY LATE AFTERNOON...FORCING A WEAK
FRONTAL INTRUSION/WIND SHIFT PRIOR TO THE MAIN SFC FRONT WHICH WILL
APPROACH THE CA COAST LATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
COOLING/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH EACH FRONTAL INTRUSION AND
CONVECTION SHOULD CERTAINLY ACCOMPANY THESE ZONES. GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF LIGHTNING SHOULD BE NOTED WHERE MARINE LAYER
MANAGES TO SPREAD INLAND...PERHAPS INTO THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY.
BUOYANCY APPEARS TOO WEAK TO WARRANT A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL.
..DARROW.. 02/26/2010
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