SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260544
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-260945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0152
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CST THU FEB 25 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL NY/EASTERN PA TO NJ/NYC METRO VICINITY
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 260544Z - 260945Z
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
OVERNIGHT WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS CENTRAL NY/EASTERN PA TO NJ/NYC
METRO VICINITY. SNOWFALL RATES MAY CONTINUE TO REACH 1 IN/HR AT
TIMES WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...BEFORE SNOW RATES BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN
MOST LOCALES BY AROUND 10-11Z.
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...WITH INTENSE PRESSURE FALLS AS
MUCH AS 8-10 MB/2-HR...CONTINUES TO CONTINUE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL
NETWORK. AS THIS CYCLONE CONTINUES TO SHIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
COASTAL AREAS...MODERATE/OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOULD ALSO SHIFT
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY/EASTERN PA...LOOSELY
COINCIDENT WITH A ROUGHLY NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED/SLOW PIVOTING
WARM FRONT. WHILE SOME CONSOLIDATION OF EXISTING HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION BANDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM /ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL NY/ GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND PRESENCE OF WEAK
STATIC STABILITY...A WESTWARD PIVOTING DRY SLOT...WITH THE LEADING
EDGE NOSING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF 05Z PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SHOULD ULTIMATELY LEAD TO DIMINISHING SNOW
RATES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY AROUND 10-11Z AS MOISTURE/LIFT
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WANES.
..GUYER.. 02/26/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...
LAT...LON 42257488 41877480 41517455 41197408 40867379 40577384
39907432 40257554 42217708 42877797 43237800 43417727
43307619 42887563 42257488
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