SWODY1
SPC AC 280525
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2010
VALID 281200Z - 011200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN ROCKIES TO CNTRL TX COAST...
SRN CA UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES
INTO PARTS OF NWRN TX BY THE END OF THE DAY1 PERIOD. THIS FEATURE
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY SPREAD STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS AZ/NM/W TX/SRN CO
AS QUITE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVERSPREAD REGION NORTH OF
FAIRLY STRONG JET CORE. EVEN SO IT APPEARS LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN
QUITE ISOLATED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENT
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF GENERATING LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN.
DOWNSTREAM...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ENHANCE ASCENT ACROSS
PARTS OF CNTRL/SERN TX...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
TX BENEATH INCREASING LLJ. MODELS SUGGEST SUSTAINED UVV AND GRADUAL
MOISTENING PROFILES WILL LEAD TO SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. GIVEN THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
BE ROOTED ABOVE 700MB...MEAGER INSTABILITY REGIME SHOULD POSE LITTLE
RISK OF MEANINGFUL HAIL...MUCH LESS ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
..DARROW.. 02/28/2010
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