SWODY2
SPC AC 280542
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2010
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...GULF COAST STATES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL OPEN AND MOVE EWD INTO
THE ARKLATEX MONDAY. SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ON THE MID TO UPPER TX COASTAL
PLAIN MONDAY MORNING NEAR A WARM FRONT ON THE WRN EDGE OF A
LOW-LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ELEVATED AND SHOULD NOT POSE A SEVERE THREAT MAINLY DUE TO WEAK
INSTABILITY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EWD DURING THE DAY...THE LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO REACHING
THE MS DELTA BY LATE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE CONSISTENT
DEVELOPING A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NRN EDGE AFFECTING SE LA AND FAR SRN MS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST
THE BRUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
STAY OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO
APPROACH 60 F AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS.
..BROYLES.. 02/28/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment