SWODY3
SPC AC 280721
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0121 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2010
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...FLORIDA...
MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE TIMING OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FL PENINSULA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING JUST WEST OF THE FL PENINSULA LATE MONDAY NIGHT ON THE WRN
EDGE OF A 45 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INLAND
ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL FL TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET QUICKLY
CROSSES THE PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG AT
THAT TIME...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY IN CNTRL FL
WITH THE 60+ F SFC DEWPOINTS WELL TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. IN SPITE
OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IN NCNTRL FL TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SHIFT SWD INTO SCNTRL FL DURING THE DAY WITH
CONVECTION POSSIBLY ORGANIZING ALONG A COLD FRONT. USING THE CURRENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE
FROM MELBOURNE SWD TO MIAMI WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAXIMIZE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR
MIAMI TUESDAY AT 21Z SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL WINDS...STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORING
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS THE MAIN THREAT.
..BROYLES.. 02/28/2010
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