SWODY2
SPC AC 190657
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2010
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
00Z NAM/GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SRN CA COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EWD THROUGH AN EXISTING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN TIER OF STATES...WITH THE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE SWRN STATES TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/W TX BY 12Z SUNDAY.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER ERN NM
ALONG THE SRN PORTION OF A LEE TROUGH...WITH DEEPENING OF THIS LOW
BEING AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF THE SRN CA SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EWD INTO NWRN TX LATE DAY 2 ALONG A
BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD EXTEND ENEWD THROUGH OK TO SRN MO.
...OK/NRN TX...
SRN HIGH PLAINS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE SLY
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR
THE GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE S OF THE ENEWD
EXTENDING BAROCLINIC ZONE IN OK/SRN MO. HOWEVER...AS INDICATED IN
THE PREVIOUS DAY 3 OUTLOOK FOR THIS PERIOD...NO DIURNAL STORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS CAP STRENGTH RELATIVE TO MOISTURE QUALITY WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA ACROSS E TX LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING MAY SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS. HOWEVER...A MARKED
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF MAINLY ELEVATED TSTM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT NWWD ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND N TX. COMBINED
EFFECTS OF ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG A
STRENGTHENING SRN PLAINS SSWLY LLJ AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 250-500 J/KG/ NEAR
AND N OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. ELEVATED TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE OF DESTABILIZATION FROM PARTS OF W TX
/INCLUDING ERN TX PANHANDLE/ THROUGH OK/N TX TO INTO AR/SRN MO. A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL NEAR
SEVERE CRITERIA ACROSS OK AND FAR N TX
...SRN CA TO SRN AZ...
A FORCED BROKEN SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE AFFECTING COASTAL AREA OF SRN
EWD EXTENT FROM THE SRN CA COAST EARLY IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD AND
STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINING S OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
SUGGEST A VERY LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER.
DESTABILIZATION ATTENDANT TO COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/LAPSE RATES
SPREADING EWD INTO SWRN STATES WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY SUPPORT
A FEW TSTMS...BUT VERY WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.
..PETERS.. 02/19/2010
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