SWODY3
SPC AC 190832
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2010
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN TX INTO PARTS OF
LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
...SYNOPSIS...
00Z GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE SRN CA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS ENEWD FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON DAY
3 THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS TO MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEYS BY 12Z
MONDAY. ECMWF IS THE SLOWER OF THE TWO MODELS.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK EWD ALONG THE RED
RIVER VALLEY TO WRN/NWRN AR BY 22/00Z...AND THEN MOVE NEWD INTO WRN
KY BY 12Z MONDAY ATTENDANT TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM
CENTRAL-ERN TX...AND ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING
COLD SPREADING ESEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY.
...PARTS OF E TX/LA/PARTS OF FAR SRN MS...
SURFACE BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS ERN TX INTO
LA AND PARTS OF SRN MS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING
WHERE THE QUALITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE BEST.
FARTHER N AND NE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED.
DESPITE THE MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCE OF THE GFS/ECMWF ON DAY 3 /SUN
FEB 21/...EACH MODEL INDICATES STRENGTHENING WSWLY MID LEVEL WINDS
/50-60 KT/ SPREADING ACROSS E TX/LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING. ALTHOUGH STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT/DPVA SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THE SRN EXTENT
OF VORTICITY LOBE AND SOME HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD SUPPORT DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUGGEST ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
..PETERS.. 02/19/2010
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