SWODY3
SPC AC 010728
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 AM CST MON FEB 01 2010
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
MID-WEEK PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL FEATURE THE DEPARTURE OF AN
EAST COAST TROUGH AND EVOLUTION OF A MODEST SRN STREAM MID-LEVEL
SYSTEM OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/NRN MEXICO. LATTER SYSTEM WILL SEND
PIECES OF ENERGY ENE TOWARD THE NWRN GULF BASIN WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM SPREADING SLOWLY INTO THE
SRN PLAINS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IN THE LOWER-LEVELS...
CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST/LOWER RIO
GRANDE VLY IN ADVANCE OF THE UPR TROUGH BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
...LWR-MID RIO GRANDE RVR VLY...
BACKING LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
TRANSPORT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE NWD
THROUGH NRN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF CNTRL/S TX LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT...MOISTENING PROFILES
AND RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO
DIURNALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTION/FEW TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN/W TX
AND SRN NM.
MEANWHILE...GULF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NWWD INTO PORTIONS OF S TX ON
WEDNESDAY...LIKELY SUPPORTING AN EXTENSIVE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS
AND SUPPRESSING THE WARM SECTOR TO COASTAL LOCATIONS AT BEST.
MOREOVER...MID-TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM AND
THERMAL BUOYANCY WILL TEND TO BE MITIGATED BY MINIMAL HEATING
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. BUT...AS THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO INTENSIFY
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE MID-TROPOSPHERE STARTS TO
COOL...ROBUST SFC-BASED TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE JUST
OFFSHORE INVOF THE COASTAL TROUGH. TO THE W...ELEVATED STORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE INLAND CLOSER TO STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...BUT MUCAPE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK. GIVEN THIS
SCENARIO...SVR TSTMS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS FAR S TX.
..RACY.. 02/01/2010
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