SWOD48
SPC AC 010929
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CST MON FEB 01 2010
VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PORTRAY LOW
PREDICTABILITY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY EVIDENT BETWEEN THE LAST FOUR
RUNS OF THE ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE NRN
BRANCH INTO THE MID-SOUTH/SERN STATES AND TIMING OF A LEAD
SRN-STREAM DISTURBANCE ACROSS FL IN THE DAY 5-7 RANGE. THIS WILL
HAVE IMPACTS ON THE SFC LOW TRACK ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER/LEAD
SYSTEM AND SUBSEQUENT TIMING OF A CDFNT PASSAGE ACROSS FL.
ATTM...DESPITE VARIABILITY IN GUIDANCE...PRE-FRONTAL TRAJECTORIES
WOULD SUGGEST A NARROW GULF INSTABILITY AXIS WOULD ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT INTO NWRN FL...SHRINKING GRADUALLY WITH EWD/TEMPORAL EXTENTS.
SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE FEED WILL PROBABLY BE HIGHLY MODIFIED
AND COMPARATIVELY MORE STABLE ACROSS FL GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL SFC
RIDGING AS FAR S AS THE BAHAMAS/CUBA DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK TIME
FRAME.
..RACY.. 02/01/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment