SWOD48
SPC AC 180906
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 AM CST THU FEB 18 2010
VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS AS MENTIONED
IN THE LATEST DAY THREE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
EWD THROUGH THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY ON D4 /SUN FEB 21ND/ AND
EVENTUALLY OFF THE MID/SERN ATLANTIC COASTS BY THE END OF D5 /MON
FEB 22ND/. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY...GULF COAST STATES /INCLUDING FL/
AND FINALLY OFF THE MID/SERN ATLANTIC COASTS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW DATA SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL WITHIN SYSTEM WARM SECTOR
WHICH WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION.
HOWEVER...WIND FIELD WILL EXHIBIT VEERING WITH HEIGHT WITH
SUFFICIENT LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES. SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS QUITE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE THREAT EXTENDING FROM ERN TX EWD
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.
CONCERNS REGARDING AIR MASS QUALITY AND ULTIMATE TIMING OF MIDLEVEL
SYSTEM /GIVEN FAST ZONAL FLOW REGIME/ PRECLUDE DELINEATION OF ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER AREAS AT THIS JUNCTURE.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER D5 AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS TEMPORARILY RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN CONUS.
..MEAD.. 02/18/2010
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