SWODY3
SPC AC 180733
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 AM CST THU FEB 18 2010
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN
TIER OF STATES WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO DE-AMPLIFY WHILE TRANSLATING FROM
THE LOWER CO VALLEY EWD INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...LARGE ZONAL COMPONENT TO MIDLEVEL FLOW FIELD
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE CYCLONE OVER THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...THE DEVELOPMENT OF WHICH WILL BE HASTENED BY THE APPROACH
OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SEWD INTO
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS WITH THIS FEATURE PRECEDING A
WARM FRONT RETREATED NWD THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
...OK...
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD
OVER THE SRN PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR THE GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE S OF WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...NO DIURNAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED AS CAP STRENGTH RELATIVE TO MOISTURE QUALITY WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEAR AND N OF SURFACE WARM
FRONT. ELEVATED TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
DESTABILIZATION...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG AND CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL NEAR SEVERE CRITERIA.
..MEAD.. 02/18/2010
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