SWODY2
SPC AC 180624
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 AM CST THU FEB 18 2010
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN TIER OF STATES WILL
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD. A SERIES OF MIDLEVEL
IMPULSES WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME...THE MOST NOTABLE
OF WHICH BEING STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM WHICH WILL TRANSLATE SEWD
FROM THE FAR ERN PACIFIC INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL PUSH SWD INTO THE
SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY IN WAKE OF DEPARTING MIDLEVEL SYSTEM
TO THE E. FARTHER W...CYCLOGENESIS ATTENDANT TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING ONTO THE CA COAST IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WHICH WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING EWD INTO THE
CNTRL ROCKIES.
...CA COAST...
CONSIDERABLE DYNAMIC COOLING/FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
ABOVE-MENTIONED SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF
WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SUCH THAT ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF SURFACE FRONT MOVING INLAND.
...DEEP S TX...
THE COUPLING OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND WEAKENING DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH
PASSAGE OF LOW-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED TSTMS FRIDAY MORNING. ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO PRIOR TO MIDDAY.
...GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...
THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...LOW TO MIDLEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS SUPPORTIVE OF SPORADIC LIGHTNING THROUGH THE
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE DYNAMIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT A MORE ROBUST THUNDER
THREAT. THUS...NO AREA WILL BE INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST.
..MEAD.. 02/18/2010
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