SWODY2
SPC AC 080636
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CST MON MAR 08 2010
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD ON
TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY BECOME INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER
SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLIES ALOFT...WHILE A SECONDARY SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY ADVANCES EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CA/NV TO NM/PERHAPS FAR WEST TX BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
...LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY...
AS THE CLOSED/VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS KS/NEB AND THE ADJACENT LOWER-MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY...AN
AXIS OF AROUND 50 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD EXIST AHEAD OF A
SURFACE LOW/TRIPLE POINT ACROSS THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY VICINITY.
BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...MODEST SURFACE HEATING BENEATH AN ADVANCING
DRY SLOT SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS GIVEN A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT BENEATH -22 TO
-24C AT 500 MB. A FUNNEL/BRIEF TORNADO RISK MAY EXIST AS WELL GIVEN
MODESTLY CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS/SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CAPE AND
AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY IN PROXIMITY TO THE VERTICALLY STACKED
CYCLONE.
...ARKLATEX/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
WARM/MOIST SECTOR WILL RESIDE/DEVELOP SOMEWHAT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/TX COASTAL
PLAIN AHEAD OF A DECELERATING COLD FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY AND A LEAD
IMPULSE ADVANCING TOWARD THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY...LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK COINCIDENT WITH THE WARM
SECTOR ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY. NONETHELESS...WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS/COOL THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE
WITHIN A MODESTLY MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTM
REGENERATION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. MODEST
HEATING/AROUND 60F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WITH 45-55 KT OF MID LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND 30-35 KT OF 1 KM FLOW MAY YIELD A FAVORABLE
SCENARIO FOR SOME SEMI-DISCRETE WARM SECTOR SUPERCELLULAR
DEVELOPMENT...WITH AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL TORNADO/MARGINAL HAIL
THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE DEGREE
OF EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER/AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AND COVERAGE OF
SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR PRECLUDES A CATEGORICAL
SLIGHT RISK AT THIS JUNCTURE.
..GUYER.. 03/08/2010
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