SWODY3
SPC AC 080835
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 AM CST MON MAR 08 2010
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK/ARKLATEX TO
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
...EAST TX/SOUTHEAST OK TO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT UPPER TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO
ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE OZARKS
VICINITY...IT APPEARS AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TX/SOUTHEAST OK TO THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING
IN PLACE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF
TODAYS/TUESDAYS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST...INCREASING LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ALOFT SHOULD
SUPPORT INCREASING SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS OF WEDNESDAY INITIALLY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX VICINITY.
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND STRONG/VEERING FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW/MID TROPOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL MODE OF
SUPERCELLS WITH SEVERE HAIL/TORNADO POTENTIAL. BUT GIVEN THE DEGREE
OF LARGE SCALE FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT STORMS
SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM BY EARLY
EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO RISK QUICKLY
SPREADING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.
ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SEVERE TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY...PERHAPS MAINLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
...EASTERN OK/FAR SOUTHEAST KS TO OZARKS/LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...
OTHER LOWER TOPPED SEVERE STORMS WILL POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK/NORTHERN AR/SOUTHERN MO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE NORTHEAST ADVANCING UPPER SYSTEM. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
/50S F/ WILL BE MORE LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT SURFACE BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
COMPACT UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG/SOUTH OF A STALLED
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONT. WHILE LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP
AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG...UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEGREE
OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PRECLUDES SLIGHT RISK CALIBER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..GUYER.. 03/08/2010
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