DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 210731
SWODY3
SPC AC 210730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT WED APR 21 2010

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL AND S CENTRAL CONUS...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE WRN U.S. UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY A SEASONABLY-STRONG
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD. AT THE SURFACE...A COMPLEX EVOLUTION IS
EXPECTED...BUT WILL INCLUDE A COLD FRONT SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND A WARM FRONT MOVING NWD ACROSS THE MID MS/MID MO VALLEY
REGION.

...MID MO/MID MS VALLEYS SWD TO THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COASTS...
ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD/POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS
FORECAST...COVERING THE CENTRAL U.S. FROM PARTS OF NEB/SRN IA/IL SWD
TO ERN TX/LA/MS...AHEAD OF THE EXPANSIVE UPPER SYSTEM AS IT
PROGRESSES EWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. A COMPLEX SURFACE EVOLUTION
IS FORECAST -- THUS MAKING AREAS OF GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ATTM. OVERALL HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT
CONCENTRATED AREAS OF STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL EVOLVE BOTH
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL AND SRN
PLAINS...AND INVOF THE WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD EXTEND ESEWD FROM NEB
INTO THE MID MS/TN VALLEY REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH A LARGE MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR IN PLACE AND WITH
STRONG/VEERING WIND FIELD WITH HEIGHT...EXPECT NUMEROUS
SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS -- PRIMARILY FROM EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MID EVENING.

AGAIN -- WHILE DETAILED EVOLUTION CANNOT BE ASCERTAINED ATTM...IT
APPEARS THAT A RELATIVE TORNADO MAXIMUM MAY OCCUR INVOF THE WARM
FRONT -- I.E. ACROSS MO AND VICINITY...WHILE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL MAY BE MAXIMIZED FROM SERN OK SSWWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SERN TX.

FARTHER E -- INTO THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY REGION -- THE IMPETUS
FOR STORM INITIATION WITHIN THE BROAD WARM SECTOR REMAINS MORE
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...GIVEN FAVORABLE KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...WILL EXTEND THE SLIGHT RISK EWD ACROSS AR/TX AND INTO
WRN TN...MS...AND LA.

..GOSS.. 04/21/2010

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