SWOD48
SPC AC 210848
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT WED APR 21 2010
VALID 241200Z - 291200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT A LARGE UPPER SYSTEM EWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. WITH TIME...WITH A GRADUAL
WEAKENING/DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM PROGGED. AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO OPEN/WEAKEN -- PARTICULARLY FROM DAY 5 /SUN. APR. 25/
ONWARD...MODEL AGREEMENT SLOWLY DECREASES AS WELL. WHILE ENHANCED
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE SERN U.S. UNTIL THE
MAIN SURFACE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE ON OR AROUND DAY 7 /TUE. APR.
27/...CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND LOCATION DECREASES
STEADILY INTO THE PERIOD.
ATTM...WILL MAINTAIN AN OUTLOOK AREA CENTERED INVOF THE MID AND
LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS DAY 4 /SAT. APR. 24/...AS A STRONGER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE MAIN
UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT ACROSS THIS REGION. WITH STRONG
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD AND MOIST/LIKELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT...WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY.
AGAIN -- WHILE AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SHIFT STEADILY EWD
WITH TIME DAYS 5-6-7...MODEL DIFFERENCES PRECLUDE HIGHLIGHTING
SPECIFIC THREAT AREAS BEYOND DAY 4.
..GOSS.. 04/21/2010
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