SWODY3
SPC AC 280736
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 AM CDT WED APR 28 2010
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...LOWER THROUGH MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN U.S.
FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT STRONG UPPER JET WILL EJECT
NEWD ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE CNTRL
PLAINS INTO THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL
CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE TRAILING
COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SWRN EXTENSION OF
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
...SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY...
A MOIST WARM SECTOR WITH RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH
THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY
BENEATH A MODEST EML PLUME RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION WITHIN LOW-LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION REGIME IN WARM SECTOR. DETAILS OF HOW STORMS WILL INITIATE
AND EVOLVE REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT SEVERAL MODES OF
CONVECTION APPEAR LIKELY INCLUDING DISCRETE STORMS AND CLUSTERS.
LARGE HODOGRAPHS ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS AND 40-50 KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES AS
WELL AS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
...MID-UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...
AN AXIS OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS
WILL RETURN NWD THROUGH THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AND
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY. A 90 KT MID LEVEL
JET ATTENDING THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND LARGE HODOGRAPHS WILL EXIST ALONG THE
LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR AND
ALONG SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ORGANIZED
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE LIKELY WITH
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
..DIAL.. 04/28/2010
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