SWOD48
SPC AC 280834
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 AM CDT WED APR 28 2010
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT BY EARLY DAY 4 /SATURDAY/ THE UPPER PATTERN
WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A BROAD DOUBLE VORTEX POSITIVE TILT UPPER
TROUGH WITH ONE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ANOTHER MOVING THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH ACROSS NRN MEXICO.
THE FRONT THAT WILL STRETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE DEEP
LAYER WINDS. GFS...ECMWF AND MOST MREF MEMBERS EJECT A SIGNIFICANT
IMPULSE NEWD ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE LOWER MS...TN
AND OH VALLEYS MAINTAINING INFLUX OF RICH GULF MOISTURE. POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH MIGRATORY LOW
LEVEL JET. THERMODYNAMIC/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE WILL SUPPORT A THREAT
OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN THE DELINEATED RISK AREA.
BEYOND DAY 4 MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE RESULTING IN
DECREASING PREDICTABILITY.
..DIAL.. 04/28/2010
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