SWODY1
SPC AC 090520
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 AM CDT SUN MAY 09 2010
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
DOMINANT CONTINENTAL SFC ANTICYCLONE...THAT IS ENTRENCHED EAST OF
THE ROCKIES...WILL BEGIN TO ERODE ALONG THE SRN/WRN PERIPHERY LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION
ATOP VERY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER AS LLJ STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA DEPICT A RESERVOIR OF VERY
HIGH PWAT...AOA 1.5 INCHES...ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN EXTENDING
NWWD INTO THE VALLEY OF SOUTH TX. THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL SURGE
NWD ATOP COOL LOW LEVEL AIRMASS ENTRENCHED OVER N TX INTO OK/KS
DURING THE DAY ENHANCING THE PROSPECT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NORTH OF SHARPENING WARM FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ATOP THIS COLD DOME FOR ROBUST
UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF GENERATING HAIL...A FEW COULD APPROACH SEVERE
LEVELS. GIVEN THE SUSTAINED WAA...TIMING CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
PROVE SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT.
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE BIG BEND OF WEST TX...MOISTURE IS RETURNING
UP THE RIO GRAND VALLEY TOWARD THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING. SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD EASILY RISE INTO THE 60S SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE WITHIN SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE
FORCING MAY REMAIN WEAK/NEUTRAL ACROSS THIS REGION...STRONG HEATING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AFTER 21Z. ANY STORMS THAT FORM
OVER THE BIG BEND WOULD THEN MOVE SEWD TOWARD THE MEXICAN BORDER
BEFORE WEAKENING...LIKELY STAYING OVER REMOTE REGIONS. LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS ARE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THIS CONVECTION.
...ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SRN FL PENINSULA ALONG/SOUTH OF SAGGING FRONTAL ZONE. SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
OTHER ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...NORTH OF A STRONG JET
AXIS...FROM PORTIONS OF NRN CA INTO CO. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
INADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION.
..DARROW/JEWELL.. 05/09/2010
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