SWODY2
SPC AC 090536
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT SUN MAY 09 2010
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NCNTRL/NE OK...SCNTRL/SE
KS AND EXTREME SW MO...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO
THE MID-MS VLY...
***SUPERCELLS WITH LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL
EXPECTED MONDAY LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/N OK...SE KS
AND SW MO***
...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VLY...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A HEALTHY MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE
CNTRL/NRN CA COAST SUNDAY MORNING. FEATURE WILL REACH THE
FOUR-CORNERS REGION MONDAY MORNING AND THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY
EVENING. SFC LOW WILL INTENSIFY OVER SCNTRL KS MONDAY AFTN BEFORE
TRANSLATING TO N MO BY 12Z TUESDAY. TO THE S OF THE LOW...A DRYLINE
WILL MIX EWD INTO SCNTRL KS AND WRN PARTS OF TX/OK DURING THE AFTN
AND BE THE IMPETUS FOR TSTM INITIATION.
THERE STILL REMAINS A SLIGHT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
TROUGH TIMING/SFC FEATURE PLACEMENT AND GFS REMAINS ON THE ERN EDGE
OF THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS. CANNOT DISCOUNT THAT IDEA COMPLETELY
GIVEN HOW MOBILE/ZONAL THE FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME IN THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS AND CURRENT DAY 2 OTLK WILL INCLUDE ELEMENTS OF BOTH 00Z
NAM/GFS...MOST LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF.
ELEVATED CONVECTION...WHICH MAY ALREADY BE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK AND ERN KS MONDAY MORNING...SHOULD MOVE ENE
TOWARD THE MID-MS VLY DURING THE AFTN. AIR MASS SHOULD RECOVER
RAPIDLY IN WAKE OF THESE STORMS WITH MONDAY AFTN MID-60S SFC DEW
POINTS SURGING NWD THROUGH OK AND INTO SCNTRL KS. CINH...RATHER
STRONG INITIALLY...SHOULD WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH OF DCVA...
DEEPENING DRYLINE CIRCULATION AND STRONG HEATING. TSTM INITIATION
WILL OCCUR MID-LATE AFTN...MOST LIKELY IN SCNTRL KS AND NCNTRL
OK...WITH MORE ISOLD STORMS FARTHER S ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE
DRYLINE INTO SWRN OK AND W TX.
AS STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE DRYLINE CIRCULATION...LARGELY
PERPENDICULAR DEEP-LAYER WIND VECTORS...MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR 50-70 KTS WILL FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL. FCST HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SRH IN
EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2 AND GIVEN ANTICIPATED STORM MODE...INCREASE IN
THE NOCTURNAL EVENING LLJ AND LOWERING LCL/S...LONG-TRACK STRONG
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE... PARTICULARLY FROM OK PORTION OF
I-40/44 NWD INTO SCNTRL/SERN KS DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
WARM SECTOR WILL RAPIDLY RECOVER DOWNSTREAM OF EARLY EVENING
ACTIVITY INTO SWRN MO AND SET-UP APPEARS CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORT
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WELL INTO THE EVENING. EVENTUALLY...ACTIVITY
WILL TRANSITION INTO LINES/CLUSTERS OVERNIGHT WITH DMGG
WINDS...ISOLD TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL PROBABILITIES AS FAR E AS THE
MID-MS RVR VLY BY 12Z TUESDAY.
FARTHER S...SUPERCELLS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS SW OK INTO W TX WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS STRONGER FORCING EXITS TO THE N
OF THE REGION.
..RACY.. 05/09/2010
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