SWODY3
SPC AC 090715
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT SUN MAY 09 2010
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH VLY/MIDWEST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO MINOR/SHEAR OUT ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GRTLKS ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG IMPULSE DIGS INTO THE
GRT BASIN. CDFNT FOLLOWING THE FORMER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE SEWD
INTO THE OH VLY...BUT STALL OVER THE OZARKS AND SRN OK/TX PNHDL
TUESDAY AFTN.
...OH VLY...
IT IS UNCLEAR ON THE MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE CDFNT
ACROSS THE OH VLY ON TUESDAY...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AT LEAST UPR
50S/LWR 60S DEW POINTS SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY AFTN. IF HEATING CAN
MATERIALIZE...SET-UP WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT INTENSIFYING STORMS ALONG
SRN FLANKS OF MORNING ACTIVITY OVER NRN OH AND CNTRL IND DURING THE
AFTN. ROUGHLY 60-70 KTS OF WSW MID-LVL FLOW ATOP SWLY LLJ OF 40 KTS
WILL BOOST VERTICAL SHEAR AND A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY
EVOLVE INTO A NE-SW ORIENTED BAND OF STORMS THAT WILL WEAKEN DURING
THE EVENING OVER THE OH VLY.
...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
AN ISOLD TSTM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TAIL-END OF THE STALLING
FRONT/OUTFLOW IN CNTRL/SWRN OK OR NWRN TX LATE TUESDAY AFTN/EVE.
ALTHOUGH UPR SUPPORT WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE...STRONG HEATING...MODEST
LLVL CONVERGENCE AND PRESENCE OF STRONG CAPE AMIDST 40 KTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR A NON-ZERO THREAT FOR ONE OR TWO SUPERCELL
STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/ISOLD TORNADO.
OTHERWISE...AS THE NEXT UPR SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GRT BASIN...LLVL
FLOW WILL RESPOND TUESDAY NIGHT AND BANDS OF ELEVATED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER NRN OK...SRN KS...SRN MO AND NRN AR CLOSE TO
THE H85-H7 FRONT. MUCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA
50 KTS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
..RACY.. 05/09/2010
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