SWODY1
SPC AC 141249
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010
VALID 141300Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN HI
PLNS/LWR RIO GRANDE VLY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR MS/TN VLYS ENE TO
THE MID ATLANTIC CST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SERN U.S. RIDGE WILL SOMEWHAT FLATTEN AS ONT UPR LOW CONTINUES ESE
INTO SRN QUE. A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER MN SHOULD SHEAR EWD
AROUND BASE OF THE TROUGH...REACHING THE LWR GRT LKS THIS EVE.
FARTHER W...SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE OPEN TROUGH NOW OVER THE SWRN DESERTS
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER UT LATER
TODAY...BEFORE CONTINUING ENE INTO WY EARLY SAT. AN IMPULSE IN THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH...NOW OVER SRN AZ...SHOULD CROSS NM
TONIGHT/EARLY SAT.
AT THE SFC...CDFNT WITH ONT/QUE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SE ACROSS
THE MID-ATLC STATES...THE CNTRL APLCNS AND THE TN/LWR MS VLYS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WRN END OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME STNRY
OVER THE SRN HI PLNS.
...SRN HI PLNS/LWR RIO GRANDE VLY...
MOIST LOW LVL SELY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE LWR RIO GRANDE VLY/
SRN HI PLNS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALONG FRINGE OF MODERATE SWLY MID
LVL JET ASSOCIATED WITH WRN TROUGH. UPSLOPE FLOW... DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING...AND WEAK UVV WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPR IMPULSE SHOULD
SUPPORT NUMEROUS AFTN/EVE TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW TX/SE
NM. IN ADDITION...SCTD SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE N
OF STALLING FRONT OVER ERN NM AND WRN PARTS OF THE LOW ROLLING PLNS.
WITH SBCAPE REACHING 2000-2500 J/KG...WEAK CINH...AND 35-40 KT OF
DEEP WSWLY SHEAR...A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR AS STORMS MOVE/
DEVELOP ESE TOWARD THE TRANS PECOS REGION/LWR PLAINS BY EVENING.
THESE COULD YIELD VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. THE STORMS COULD
EVOLVE INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS WITH GUSTY/DMGG WINDS OVER PARTS
OF W CNTRL AND SW TX THIS EVE. OTHER STRONG/POSSIBLY SVR STORMS MAY
CROSS THE LWR RIO GRANDE FROM NE MEXICO INTO TX TONIGHT.
...LWR MS/TN VLYS ENE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
BANDS OF MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND N
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE SRN
OZARKS ENE TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THIS MORNING AS MOIST
/WITH PW AOA 1.50 INCHES/ LOW-LVL FLOW CONTINUES. COMBINED WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG HEATING...SUFFICIENT CAPE /2000-3000 J PER KG/
SHOULD DEVELOP FOR NUMEROUS NEW STORMS ALONG THE SRN FRINGES OF
MORNING ACTIVITY. GLANCING INFLUENCE OF GRT LKS TROUGH MAY SUPPORT
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY FROM KY NEWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST.
40-45 KT WSW MID-LVL FLOW ON NRN FRINGE OF UPR RIDGE SHOULD SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS MARGINAL
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM KY/TN TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...AND
OVER CNTRL/SRN PA TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST. EMBEDDED BOWS MAY YIELD
BOTH DMGG WIND GUSTS AND SVR HAIL. THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS EVE.
..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 05/14/2010
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