SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141251
TXZ000-NMZ000-141415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0556
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SE NM/W TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 169...
VALID 141251Z - 141415Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 169
CONTINUES.
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
MORNING FROM SE NM/W CENTRAL TX BORDER NWD INTO ERN NM. INSTABILITY
AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STILL FAVOR A RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
BROKEN BANDS OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
ERN/SERN NM THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL WAA. REGIONAL 12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM EPZ/ABQ SHOW RELATIVELY COOL PROFILES AND STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO THE W...WHILE THE MAF/DRT SOUNDINGS REVEAL
RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING NWWD UP THE RIO GRANDE AND PECOS
VALLEYS. THIS COMBINATION OF INGREDIENTS WILL SUPPORT MUCAPE NEAR
2000 J/KG...WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT IS
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SURFACE-BASED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE LATER THIS
MORNING NEAR THE SRN EDGE OF THE WATCH AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL.
..THOMPSON.. 05/14/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 32070303 31960311 32000484 32520484 32520534 33130530
33130489 34340488 34340531 35210527 35220415 35280363
35390362 35380340 35720337 35730302 34770304 34760253
34300257 34300266 32930257 32940220 32050222 32070303
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