SWODY2
SPC AC 100600
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE MID-LVL WAVE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY WILL DEAMPLIFY AS
IT HEADS ENE TO THE MIDWEST AND GRTLKS REGION ON TUESDAY. NEXT
IMPULSE WILL QUICKLY DIG INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A 590DAM HIGH BUILDING NWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES. AT
THE SFC...THE LOW ASSOCD WITH THE FORMER WAVE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS
THE MIDWEST WITH A TRAILING CDFNT DECELERATING ACROSS THE OH VLY AND
SRN PLAINS TUESDAY AFTN/EVE. WRN EXTENT OF THIS FRONT WILL DEVELOP
NWD TOWARD THE CNTRL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
...OH VLY...
STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL LIKELY BE DRIVING A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM THE UPR MIDWEST INTO THE LWR OH
VLY EARLY TUESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ENE INTO THE
CNTRL/LWR GRTLKS AND UPR OH VLY/CNTRL APLCNS DURING THE AFTN.
OUTFLOW/CDFNT WILL CONTINUE SEWD TO ALONG THE OH RVR OR JUST BEYOND
BY AFTN AND QUESTION WILL BECOME WHETHER SFC-BASED STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG IT DURING PEAK HEATING. DEAMPLIFYING STATE OF THE UPR
TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING OF THE LLVL CONVERGENCE/ INCREASING
CINH WOULD ARGUE AGAINST SUSTAINED STORMS. BUT...THERE IS A
NON-ZERO THREAT THAT HEATING ALONE MAY FORCE A STORM OR TWO AMIDST
MLCAPES TO 1000-1500 J/KG. COVERAGE WOULD BE ISOLD AT BEST...BUT
SHOULD A STORM FORM...ROUGHLY 50 KTS OF 6KM SHEAR/200 M2 PER S2
0-1KM SRH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SUPERCELL WITH A BRIEF
TORNADO...DMGG WIND GUST AND HAIL.
...CNTRL-SRN PLAINS TO MID-MS VLY...
STALLING FRONT/OUTFLOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NWD THROUGH OK TUESDAY
AFTN AND LLVL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
UPR-60S WILL SURGE N AND NW. STRONG HEATING AND MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
7.5-8 C/KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE WEAK SFC RIDGING EARLY IN THE AFTN MAY
GIVE WAY TO NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW BY LATE AFTN. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING MAY WEAKEN CINH SUFFICIENTLY FOR A LOW
PROBABILITY OF STORM INITIATION ACROSS NW TX INTO CNTRL OK ALONG
NWRN PERIPHERY OF IMPROVING MOISTURE PROFILES. IF THIS WERE TO
OCCUR...STRONG CAPE/STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL/LLVL
SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR A SUPERCELL WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO.
MORE LIKELY SCENARIO...HOWEVER...IS FOR A NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN
ELEVATED STORMS FROM NRN OK INTO PARTS OF KS...SRN MO AND NRN AR
ALONG AN ACCELERATING LLJ. MUCAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLD LARGE HAIL.
..RACY.. 05/10/2010
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