SWODY3
SPC AC 100720
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND MID MS VLY...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPR TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL EJECT
ENE ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE DAY. A WRMFNT WILL
TRANSLATE NWD IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM INTO PARTS OF THE LWR MO VLY
AND CORN BELT WHILE A CDFNT BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN LATER IN THE PD
FROM KS TO W TX.
...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO MID MS VLY...
MID 60S SFC DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NWD INTO ERN KS AND MO
BY WEDNESDAY AFTN BENEATH A SUBSTANTIAL EML. AFTER MORNING
CONVECTION MOVES ENE INTO THE UPR MS VLY BY AFTN...STRONG HEATING
AND GLANCING INFLUENCE OF AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MID/LATE AFTN TSTM INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE IN CNTRL KS/WRN OK.
INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR AS VERTICAL SHEAR IS
FCST TO BE AOA 45 KTS AMIDST 7.5 DEG C PER KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES.
THUS...VERY LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A MIXED-MODE OF CELLS AND LINEAR
SEGMENTS DURING THE EVENING...LIKELY ADVANCING ENE INTO PARTS OF NRN
MO AND SRN IA WITH POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND GUSTS. SOME OF THE
ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE MID MS VLY BY 12Z THURSDAY WITH A DECREASE IN
SVR THREATS.
MEANWHILE...AS LOW/MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES MID/LATE EVENING
ALONG SRN FRINGES OF THE EJECTING UPR WAVE...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BACKBUILD/DEVELOP SWWD ACROSS OK AND INTO W TX. WHILE STORMS MAY
BRIEFLY ORGANIZE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS...THEY WILL
LIKELY BECOME UNDERCUT AS THE CDFNT BEGINS TO SURGE SEWD OVERNIGHT.
..RACY.. 05/10/2010
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