SWODY3
SPC AC 140719
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...
...SRN PLAINS/MID-MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SCNTRL U.S.
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. MODEL
FORECASTS KEEP SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CNTRL TX SUGGESTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS SFC TEMPS WARM. SOME MODEL
FORECASTS SHOW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY MORNING WITH
CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING SEWD ACROSS NCNTRL TX
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND
SUGGESTS THE STRONG CELLS MAY HAVE A SEVERE THREAT. LARGE HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY IF THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH END UP BEING REASONABLE.
FURTHER EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY...MODEL FORECASTS
DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN A REGION OF WARM ADVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
IN ERN AR SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH
ABOUT 30 KT OF FLOW AT 850 MB. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL
WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DURING THE DAY.
..BROYLES.. 05/14/2010
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