MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0553

ACUS11 KWNS 140748
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140748
PAZ000-OHZ000-140915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0553
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NE OH/NW PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 140748Z - 140915Z

A SMALL BOWING CLUSTER WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS NE OH/NW PA WITH
AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. THE RELATIVELY SMALL
TIME/SPACE WINDOW FOR THE THREAT MAKES THE NEED FOR A WATCH
UNCERTAIN.

A CONTINUATION OF THE EARLIER ROTATING STORMS IN NW OH HAS EVOLVED
INTO A SMALL BOWING CLUSTER THAT IS APPROACHING THE CLE AREA AS OF
0745Z. THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ALONG A STALLED
FRONT/REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY S OF LAKE ERIE...FED BY WEAK
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ON THE N EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR.
DEEP-LAYER WLY WIND PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED BOWING
STRUCTURES...AND THE FAST STORM MOTION /55-60 KT/ SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AT THE GROUND. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS
THE STORMS WILL MOVE E OF THE INSTABILITY CORRIDOR IN NW PA WITHIN
THE NEXT 1.5-2 HOURS...AND IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW MUCH OF THE
HIGH-MOMENTUM OUTFLOW IS ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND WITH THE
STORMS ON THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES.
THUS...THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT CLEAR AT THIS TIME.

..THOMPSON.. 05/14/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 40977906 40827920 40777956 40848048 40928142 40958185
41248178 41498158 41588095 41607983 41557942 41457905
40977906

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