SWODY3
SPC AC 310726
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
AS HURRICANE EARL TRACKS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL VICINITY THURSDAY...MODELS ARE
SUGGESTIVE OF INCREASING AMPLIFICATION WITHIN AN INITIALLY ZONAL
STRONGER BELT OF WESTERLIES EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE U.S. AND SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS INCLUDES A POSSIBLE BUILDING
RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES...AND A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. BUT DIFFERENCES PERSIST AMONG THE VARIOUS
MODELS CONCERNING THESE DEVELOPMENTS AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL
RESPONSE. AND THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO UNCERTAIN CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS PERIOD...PARTICULARLY NEAR A DEVELOPING SURFACE
CYCLONE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND SOUTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...
GIVEN THE SIZABLE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW/MID-LEVEL
CYCLONE...UNCERTAINTIES ARE STILL TOO LARGE TO CONFIDENTLY OUTLOOK A
CATEGORICAL SEVERE RISK AREA AT THE PRESENT TIME. BUT THE WARM
SECTOR/PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MOIST...AND COULD BECOME EITHER FAVORABLY SHEARED OR
SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP BY
EARLY THURSDAY...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT
MAY ALLOW SUFFICIENT HEATING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST A
NARROW PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR OF MODERATELY LARGE CAPE /IN EXCESS OF
2000 J PER KG/. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WHICH COULD INCLUDE
SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY IF THIS DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR AS FAR
NORTHEAST AS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN.
..KERR.. 08/31/2010
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