SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310652
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-310815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1766
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 AM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL MN...SE SD...FAR NW IA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 637...
VALID 310652Z - 310815Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 637 CONTINUES.
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS WW 637 THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY
MOVE EWD ACROSS SW MN...FAR SE SD INTO NW IA OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3
HOURS.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY FROM JUST WEST OF ST CLOUD MN SWWD
TO NEAR O'NEILL NEB IS LOCATED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND NEAR THE
AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS IS SHOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LINE WITH
MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. THE
INSTABILITY...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 TO 65 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN THE
LINE EWD THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. REGIONAL WSR-88D
VWPS AHEAD OF THE LINE IN NEB...IA AND MN SHOW VERY STRONG SPEED
SHEAR IN THE 0-1 KM LAYER ALONG WITH SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT MAINLY WITH ROTATING CELL ELEMENTS WITHIN THE LINE.
BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS MAY ALSO PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..BROYLES.. 08/31/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...
LAT...LON 42469647 42539671 42719685 42859725 42889785 42779793
42849813 43109813 43479809 43479758 43839763 43849737
44199735 44209709 44549710 44539646 45259641 45189610
45429612 45439514 45799511 45789423 45579422 45529346
45219350 45189366 45029376 44999399 44779402 44699373
44589392 44569351 44209352 44229376 43839377 43849423
43519425 43539488 43259493 43269539 42929540 42939586
42559589 42589647 42469647
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