DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041940
SWODY1
SPC AC 041939

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT SAT SEP 04 2010

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MT...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE TROUGH FROM SRN ID INTO NRN
MT...WITH ANOTHER AXIS FROM NRN MT SWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHERE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY YIELD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ENHANCE WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1789.

..JEWELL.. 09/04/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2010/

...WRN/CENTRAL MT AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER BC/WA WILL AMPLIFY SEWD OVER THE
NRN ROCKIES AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS MT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS PRECEDED BY A
NARROW PLUME OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NRN ID/WRN MT...AND
MODIFIED REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST WEAK
INSTABILITY AND DEEP INVERTED-V PROFILES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THESE PROFILES WILL SUPPORT HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG/ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL MT AS MIDLEVEL FLOW INCREASES.
THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST DAMAGING WIND THREAT
IS WEAK INSTABILITY.

...ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...
DEEP DRYING IN THE WAKE OF A DEEP MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING OVER
THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO...WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. THE PRIMARY EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE
SLOW-MOVING FRONT ACROSS S TX AND FL...WITHIN THE REMAINING TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME.

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