DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 200729
SWODY3
SPC AC 200728

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT MON SEP 20 2010

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN SD/NRN NEB AND INTO
PARTS OF WRN IA...

...SYNOPSIS...
AS A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS QUICKLY EWD ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CONUS...A LARGER/MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

AS HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED. THE REMNANT W-E BAROCLINIC ZONE INITIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RETREAT NWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH
PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS. THIS MATURING STORM SYSTEM SHOULD SUPPORT
INCREASING CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD.

...SD/NEB/WRN IA AND VICINITY...
WHILE MODELS DIFFER IN TERMS OF DEGREE...CONSISTENCY EXISTS WITH
RESPECT TO CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION.
WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SLYS/SELYS THUS EXPECTED TO ADVECT
MOISTURE NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...EXPECT MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING.

CONVECTION LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD INCREASE AS THE AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES...BOTH INVOF THE LOW AND ALONG THE RETREATING W-E
BAROCLINIC ZONE. WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL SWLYS ON ERN FRINGES OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH ATOP LOW-LEVEL SELYS...SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED
STRONGER/SUPERCELL STORMS WILL EVOLVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. WHILE AGAIN...LOCATION AND DEGREE OF SURFACE
DEVELOPMENT REMAIN IN QUESTION...CONFIDENCE THAT A ZONE OF ENHANCED
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS
REGION WARRANTS THE INTRODUCTION OF A SLIGHT RISK. ATTM...WILL
FOCUS THE HIGHER THREAT AREA ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER...EXTENDING EWD
TOWARD WRN IA ALONG THE RETREATING BAROCLINIC ZONE.

INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL JET AFTER DARK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF CONVECTIVE/SEVERE
POTENTIAL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE N CENTRAL
CONUS.

..GOSS.. 09/20/2010

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