SWOD48
SPC AC 200825
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 AM CDT MON SEP 20 2010
VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODEL AGREEMENT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY BEYOND DAY 4
/THU. 9-23/...SPECIFICALLY WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY MOVING ACROSS WRN CANADA. WITH MODELS
IN LARGE DISAGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE DEGREE OF
STRENGTHENING/DIGGING THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL NOT
ATTEMPT ANY FORECAST OF SEVERE THREAT BEYOND DAY 4..
MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE PROGRESSION -- AND WEAKENING --
OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE ROCKIES AND CROSSING THE CENTRAL
CONUS. BOTH MODELS SHIFT A WELL-DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW INTO/ACROSS
THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS LATE.
THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AS DIURNAL WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. WITH
MODERATELY-STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
AT THE TROUGH EJECTS...SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS/LOCALLY-SEVERE
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME SEVERE
WEATHER...CONFIDENCE THAT EVENTUAL HIGHER-END COVERAGE AND/OR DEGREE
OF THREAT WILL EVOLVE IS FAIRLY LOW -- THUS PRECLUDING THE
INTRODUCTION OF A THREAT AREA ATTM.
..GOSS.. 09/20/2010
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