SWODY1
SPC AC 110537
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 AM CDT MON OCT 11 2010
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN TX...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOME AREAS OF PA...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PRESIDE ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD WITH A
LARGE/SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW SPREADING SEWD FROM KS/OK...A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES...AND AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH ALL THREE OF THESE DISTURBANCES GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH EACH. SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL OVER MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN INHIBITED TO SOME EXTENT BY LACK OF GREATER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTANT DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...A
COUPLE OF AREAS HAVE A RELATIVELY BETTER CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING A
ROUND OF SEVERE TSTMS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
LATE MONDAY EVENING.
...ERN TX...
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...BUT DISPLACED SOUTH AND EAST FROM NW TX AND SW
OK...A BELT OF ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ON THE SRN FLANK OF UPPER
LOW CIRCULATION WILL DEVELOP COINCIDENT WITH AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL
DESTABILIZATION ARCING FROM SCNTRL TX NEWD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX.
MLCAPE VALUES IN THIS CORRIDOR MAY REACH 1000 J/KG AND PERSISTENT
ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL HEATING SHOULD OVERCOME INHIBITION AND ALLOW
STORMS TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SWATH OF 30-35KT WLY MID
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR STORM PERSISTENCE
WITH A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR MARGINALLY ORGANIZED MULTICELLS
EVOLVING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HAIL AND A FEW STRONG TO DAMAGING
WIND EVENTS APPEAR POSSIBLE BEFORE STORMS DIMINISH IN INTENSITY BY
LATE EVENING.
...PA...
LIFT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ALONG A DEEP-LAYER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NRN PA AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OCCURS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL
MOISTENING CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE CLIMBING TO AROUND 500 J/KG. A FEW
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN A REGIME CHARACTERIZED BY
STRENGTHENING UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
PERSISTENT/ROTATING STORM UPDRAFTS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL FURTHER
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. A COUPLE OF LINE SEGMENTS OR PERHAPS
SPLITTING CELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS
A FEW STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..CARBIN/ROGERS.. 10/11/2010
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