SWODY2
SPC AC 110558
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT MON OCT 11 2010
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT SRN PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL TRANSITION TO AN
OPEN WAVE AND DEAMPLIFY AS IT ACCELERATES THROUGH THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND SERN STATES WITH THE NAM BEING SLOWER THAN GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS. FARTHER NORTH A STRONG IMPULSE WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN SWD ACCELERATION
OF FRONTAL ZONE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE
UPPER MS VALLEY REGION ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER
IN ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF CP AIR.
...ERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
IT APPEARS SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE IN PROGRESS EARLY TUESDAY
MAINLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITHIN ZONE OF DIVERGENCE AND ASCENT
EAST OF UPPER LOW CENTER. AXIS OF 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL
RESIDE IN WARM SECTOR BENEATH COLD AIR ALOFT WITH -14 TO -16C AT 500
MB. WHERE DIABATIC WARMING OCCURS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THE STRONGER INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW CENTER WHERE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COLD...BUT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER.
STRONGER SHEAR IS EXPECTED NEAR THE GULF COAST WHERE WARMER AIR
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
DESPITE MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR...STEEP LAPSE RATES...COLD AIR ALOFT
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS
OUTLOOK...BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE CATEGORICAL RISK IN
LATER UPDATES.
...MID ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION...
STORMS MAY BE ONGOING IN VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM PA INTO A
PORTION OF THE NERN STATES. THE BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE SWD DURING THE
DAY AS A STRONG IMPULSE ROTATES THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. PLUME
OF 7 C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST OVER WARM SECTOR WHERE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL RESIDE. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. CONVECTION
MAY UNDERGO SOME INTENSIFICATION ALONG SWD ADVANCING BOUNDARY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MARGINAL
INSTABILITY COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE THAN 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.
..DIAL.. 10/11/2010
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